Index Numbers
"An index number is a compass that tells you which way prices are moving — and how fast."
1. Chapter Overview
INDEX NUMBERS are statistical devices that measure CHANGES in a variable or group of variables over TIME, SPACE, or both. This chapter covers: what index numbers ARE, how they're CONSTRUCTED (base year, weighted vs unweighted), the MAJOR INDEXES used in India (CPI, WPI, IIP, Sensex), and the limitations of index numbers.
2. What Is an Index Number?
- A number that measures the RELATIVE CHANGE in a variable (or group of variables) compared to a BASE PERIOD
- Base period value = 100. Current period = 120 → 20% increase over the base period.
- Index numbers are essentially PERCENTAGES with the % sign removed
Why Index Numbers?
- Measure inflation: CPI, WPI — how much have prices risen?
- Measure economic performance: IIP — is industrial output growing?
- Cost of living adjustments: DA (Dearness Allowance) for government employees is linked to CPI
- Stock market: Sensex, Nifty — how is the market performing relative to a base?
- Policy decisions: RBI uses CPI to decide interest rates
3. Construction of an Index Number
Step 1: Choose the Base Year
- The REFERENCE year against which all other years are compared
- Should be: a 'NORMAL' year (no wars, famines, pandemics, extreme economic events)
- Should be: relatively RECENT (to remain relevant)
- Current CPI base year: 2012
- Current WPI base year: 2011-12
Step 2: Select the Items
- What goods/services does the index cover?
- For CPI: a BASKET of goods and services that a typical consumer buys (food, housing, transport, education, health, etc.)
- The basket is determined by CONSUMPTION SURVEYS
Step 3: Choose the Weights
- Not all items are equally important. Food is a BIGGER share of a poor household's budget than of a rich household's.
- Weighted index: Each item's price change is weighted by its IMPORTANCE in the basket
- Weights come from: consumer expenditure surveys (for CPI), production and trade data (for WPI)
Step 4: Choose the Formula
Simple (Unweighted) Methods
- Simple Aggregative: P₀₁ = (ΣP₁ / ΣP₀) × 100. Sum of current prices ÷ Sum of base prices. Problem: no weighting. All items treated equally.
- Simple Average of Price Relatives: Average of individual price ratios.
Weighted Methods
- Laspeyres' Index: Uses BASE PERIOD quantities as weights. P₀₁ = Σ(P₁Q₀) / Σ(P₀Q₀) × 100. Tends to OVERSTATE inflation (doesn't account for substitution away from expensive items).
- Paasche's Index: Uses CURRENT PERIOD quantities. P₀₁ = Σ(P₁Q₁) / Σ(P₀Q₁) × 100. Tends to UNDERSTATE inflation.
- Fisher's Ideal Index: Geometric mean of Laspeyres AND Paasche. √(Laspeyres × Paasche). Considered the BEST — but requires more data.
4. Major Indexes in India
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Measures CHANGE in RETAIL PRICES of goods and services consumed by households
- Compiled by: NSO (National Statistical Office)
- Types: CPI-Rural, CPI-Urban, CPI-Combined
- Used for: measuring INFLATION from the consumer's perspective. RBI uses CPI for inflation targeting (target: 4% ± 2%).
Wholesale Price Index (WPI)
- Measures CHANGE in WHOLESALE PRICES (at the producer/wholesale level, not retail)
- Compiled by: Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce
- Covers: primary articles, fuel and power, manufactured products
- WPI inflation vs CPI inflation: They can DIFFER because they cover different baskets at different levels of the supply chain
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
- Measures CHANGE in the VOLUME of industrial production
- Compiled by: CSO (Central Statistics Office)
- Sectors: mining, manufacturing, electricity
Sensex and Nifty
- Stock market indexes. Sensex (BSE — 30 stocks). Nifty (NSE — 50 stocks).
- Measure overall market performance
5. Issues and Limitations of Index Numbers
- Base year: Must remain RELEVANT. Consumption patterns CHANGE over time. An outdated base year gives a misleading index.
- Basket selection: Whose consumption? Urban middle class? Rural poor? Indexes DIFFER by the basket.
- Quality changes: A phone today is NOT the same as a phone in 2012 (the CPI base year). Price increases may reflect QUALITY IMPROVEMENT, not pure inflation.
- New products: Smartphones, OTT subscriptions, data packs — not in the basket when base year was set. The basket AGES.
- Substitution bias: When the price of one item rises, consumers switch to cheaper alternatives. Fixed-weight indexes (Laspeyres) ignore this → overstate inflation.
6. Exam Focus
- Definition of index number — relative change from base year
- Steps in construction — base year, items, weights, formula
- Laspeyres vs Paasche vs Fisher — formulas and tendencies
- CPI, WPI, IIP — what each measures, who compiles, base year
- Inflation targeting — RBI uses CPI (4% ± 2%)
- Limitations — base year, basket, quality, new products, substitution bias
7. Conclusion
Index numbers are the THERMOMETERS of the economy:
- CPI: Measures the fever (inflation) as felt by CONSUMERS. RBI watches it obsessively.
- WPI: Measures wholesale prices. Useful for producers and policymakers.
- IIP: Measures the PULSE of industry.
- CONSTRUCTION: Base year, basket, weights, formula. Each choice MATTERS.
- LIMITATIONS: Index numbers are INDISPENSABLE — but they are APPROXIMATIONS, not truths.
'When you hear "inflation is 5%", you're hearing the voice of the Consumer Price Index. Index numbers turn the chaos of millions of prices into a single, readable number.'
